Idaho — Dairy industry faces $5.1B loss from immigration enforcement, 90% foreign-born workforce
Overview
Idaho’s dairy industry — a cornerstone of the state economy — is critically dependent on immigrant labor and faces existential risk from the 2025-2026 enforcement surge. With 90% of dairy workers foreign-born and an estimated 50% undocumented, mass deportation would trigger a projected $5.1 billion loss in gross state product and a 45% drop in dairy output. Despite this, no direct worksite raids on Idaho dairies have occurred as of early 2026, though the chilling effect of the 797% arrest surge is already disrupting operations.
Key Details
Workforce Dependency
- 90% of Idaho dairy workers are foreign-born (per Idaho Dairymen’s Association CEO Rick Naerebout)
- ~50% estimated undocumented (exact numbers uncertain)
- Domestic worker recruitment historically fails: of 6,500 openings in one study, only 7 domestic workers completed a full season
Projected Economic Impact of Mass Deportation
| Sector | Impact |
|---|---|
| Dairy | 45% drop in output |
| Agriculture (broader) | 22.5% reduction |
| Residential construction | 13% reduction |
| Hospitality/dining | 10% reduction |
| Total GSP loss | $5.1 billion (4% of Idaho total) |
| State revenue loss | $400 million |
| Jobs eliminated | 29,000 undocumented + 27,000 dependent |
Industry Response
- Idaho Dairymen’s Association advocates for expanded legal pathways, multi-year visas
- Farmers face constraints: milk pricing set by market forces, can’t pass labor costs to consumers
- “Quiet conversations” between ag leaders and administration officials warning against worksite enforcement
- Idaho House committee advanced an E-Verify bill despite dairy industry opposition
Enforcement Status (as of April 2026)
- No direct worksite raids on Idaho dairy farms
- Targeted enforcement focused on individuals with criminal backgrounds
- But community fear and workforce instability already affecting operations
- National pattern: ICE raided dairy farms in New York (Sackets Harbor, March 2025) and Vermont (Berkshire, April 2025)
Why It Matters
Idaho is ground zero for the tension between aggressive immigration enforcement and agricultural economic reality. The state’s dairy industry would suffer among the worst workforce losses in the nation. The absence of worksite raids so far may reflect political calculations — Idaho’s dairy lobby is politically powerful — but the threat creates a chilling effect that itself disrupts the labor pipeline. If enforcement escalates to worksite raids, the economic impact would dwarf the enforcement activity in the state.
Sources
- Trump’s immigration crackdown rattles Idaho dairies — Idaho Business Review (May 2025)
- Idaho industries warn of severe impact — Boise State Public Radio (Feb 2026)
- Idaho dairies brace for uncertainty — KTVB
- Idaho farmer calls for new look at immigration policy — PBS News
- Idaho committee advances E-Verify bill — KTVB